FIRE Simulator
FeaturedOverview
A browser-based Monte Carlo retirement simulator that stress-tests FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) plans against 10,000 randomized market scenarios and four real historical crisis sequences (1929, 1966, 2000, 2008). Users input their portfolio, spending, stock/bond allocation, and age, then see success probability, percentile trajectories, and worst-case drawdown — all computed client-side in under half a second.
Methodology
- Monte Carlo engine with Box-Muller transform for N(0,1) normal random generation
- Cholesky decomposition for correlated stock/bond returns (ρ=-0.05)
- Real (inflation-adjusted) returns sourced from Dimson/Marsh/Staunton and Shiller datasets
- Withdraw-first-then-grow convention matching the Trinity Study / Bengen methodology
- Historical crisis backtests against actual 30-year sequences from each market downturn
- Percentile trajectory computation (5/25/50/75/95) for fan chart visualization